Originators of revelry of elements traditionally become the natural and human factor. And last will lead to increase not only technogenic accidents, but also will affect(influence) natural factors. In particular, in it(this) to year one of new potential sources of danger for the first time recognizes global warming. Besides separately in the forecast one more new danger, before not mentioned by experts(auditeurs) of the Ministry of Emergency Measures, - the bears-rods is mentioned, woken is abnormal in the warm winter, writes " Time of news.

The forecast of troubles begins with factors global - such, as increase of the general(common) temperature on a planet and change of solar activity within a year. In the forecast of rescuers it is marked(celebrated), that the mid-annual temperature of air on a planet has raised(increased) the last century on 0,6 degrees. To the middle of this century increase of average annual temperature can already make in different areas of Russia from one up to four degrees, and to the greatest degree it will concern(touch) Western Siberia, the European territory of the country, Yakutia and the Arctic coast. And the years(summer) temperature will not change, but will be warmer in the winter. Speed of thawing of a permafrost thus can reach(achieve) unknown values - 20 centimeters a year.

" The global temperature can really raise(increase) by the end of this century on two-five degrees, - the deputy director of hydrometeorological centre of the Russian Federation Gennady Yeliseyev has confirmed to " New news ". - though for certain it(this) anybody cannot tell. There are even adherents of idea that can to begin, on the contrary, a cold snap ".

Increase of global climatic temperature, in opinion of analysts of the Ministry of Emergency Measures, bears(carries) in itself a lot of threats.

First, thawing of ices, in particular, is capable to cause mass deformation and destruction of buildings. In the Ministry of Emergency Measures mark(celebrate), that for last 10 years number of the constructions which have received a various sorts of destruction and damage because of the bases, has increased in comparison with previous decade for 42 % in Norilsk and on 61 % in Yakutsk. However, this phenomenon is far not universal, it is characteristic only for permafrost regions.

Secondly, increase of frequency of collision of cold and warm air weights with a high level of temperature contrast conducts to increase in quantity(amount) of hurricanes, strong deposits, flooding and high waters. The basic part of typhoons as it is usual, is necessary to the Far East, first of all to Kuriles. Their quantity(amount) is predicted at a level 26-28, in five cases parameters of typhoons as believe in the Ministry of Emergency Measures, will create threat for occurrence and developments of extreme situations of a territorial and federal level.

Thirdly, intensive thawing and retreating glaciers raises(increases) risk scale mudslide and settled the phenomena. For last 50 years, according to the Ministry of Emergency Measures, glaciers of Caucasus have on the average receded more than on 300 meters. It has generated conditions for natural accidents of rare repeatability (in the Krasnodar, Stavropol edges(territories), Kabardino-Balkariya, Karachaevo-Circassia, Northern Ossetia and Dagestan). To last of similar states of emergency became crushing a glacier It is caustic in the autumn of 2002.

Also warming can affect increase in number and scales natural Emergency Measures (EM), first of all forest fires.

By calculations of experts(auditeurs) of the Ministry of Emergency Measures, in 2007 occurrence of 30-40 magnetic storms from which two-four will be rather strong is expected. Geomagnetic indignations are most probable in March-April and September-October. At this time, in opinion of rescuers, the number of mistakes(errors) of operators of all levels will increase, the risk of refusals will increase in complex(difficult) electronic and elektro-mechanical systems that raises(increases) probability of occurrence of technogenic failures(accidents).

The forecast of technogenic accidents

The quantity(amount) of the accidents caused by technogenic factors, is predicted the Ministry of Emergency Measures at a level of the last year. Their greatest number will be connected with fires in buildings and constructions. Moscow - here, under the forecast is in the lead in the list on these parameters, can occur(happen) up to 3000 fires. After there are Seaside and Krasnoyarsk edges(territories), the Moscow, Sverdlovsk, Kemerovo and Irkutsk areas. In the Altay, Krasnodar and Khabarovsk edges(territories), republics Altais, Bashkortostan and Kalmykia, the Volgograd, Nizhniy Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Samara and Chelyabinsk areas of fires happens approximately on one thousand less.

The number of road accident with heavy consequences will grow in 2007 as are afraid in the Ministry of Emergency Measures, and. The greatest quantity(amount) of accidents is predicted in Seaside, Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar territories, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, the Rostov, Moscow areas, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Moscow and St.-Petersburg. Among principal causes of this tendency - growth of average speed of movement due to increase in park of foreign cars at a bad condition of roads and a road infrastructure, and also low qualification of drivers.

Increase of breakdown susceptibility and in aircraft is predicted. Here accidents will arise at operation of helicopter transport and small aircraft. The greatest quantity(amount) of incidents is predicted with helicopters Mi-8 and planes of the local airlines which are based in Central, Priobmsk, Yakutsk, the Kamchatka, Krasnoyarsk and Tyumen regional managements aviation. The reasons - infringements of rules of performance of flights, above permitted standard loading, use of not certificated units and spare parts, imperfection of normative base in small aircraft.

On this background pleases a railway transportation. In 2007 breakdown susceptibility will be kept at former low enough level, despite of significant deterioration of the rolling stock ascertained by the Ministry of Emergency Measures.

" The bird's flu " and bears-rods for the first time are recognized by real threat

For the first time in the forecast for 2007 of the Ministry of Emergency Measures has separately mentioned(touched) a problem of " the bird's flu ". " The probability of a mutation of a virus up to a level at which its(his) transfer from the person to the person becomes possible(probable), is high enough, - is noted in the report. - by estimations of separate foreign experts, this term is estimated in one-two years ". Nevertheless the basic epidemic rise of desease by a flu as believe in the Ministry of Emergency Measures, will be connected at all with bird's, and a usual flu - " circulation of viruses And (Н3N2) and And (Н1N1) ". Achievement of an epidemic level of desease is expected in territories with the tendency of reduction of quantity(amount) of the imparted citizens - in Komi, Kareliya, the Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Vologda, Ulyanovsk areas, Nenets joint-stock company.

One more potential danger specified in the forecast of the Ministry of Emergency Measures for the first time, - bears-rods. Because of temperature anomalies of November-December, 2006 and deficiency of a sunlight the habitual rhythm of a life of flora and fauna has changed. Long warm weather has changed reflex and exchange processes at wild animals with a biological rhythm of hibernation. To the greatest degree it can affect behaviour of bears and badgers - it will differ unmotivated aggression. In view of that and on Caucasus lives in the European part of Russia up to 20 thousand bears, the problem can become serious. The greatest threat bears, not залегшие in hibernation, in opinion of the Ministry of Emergency Measures, will represent in second half of winter - the beginning of spring.