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Abnormal heat - 2010: Causes and Consequences
Posted on Пятница, Август 27 @ 21:46:40 MSD
Тема: World(Global) warming news (english)
Abnormal heat - 2010: Causes and Consequences Abnormal heat-2010Zaklyuchitelny year of the first decade of the new millennium is not yet complete, but it is safe to say that all Russians will remember him mostly the same - an abnormally high temperature, not only dried woods and fields, and has traditionally been accustomed burning in the heart of Russia every year, but decency and wearing all those who were lucky enough to live west of the Ural Mountains. In essence, the outgoing year has become one of the driest and hottest time intervals in the history of meteorological science - the competition he can not make even known for their "unfriendly" years of total drought - only a few months ago, long-term records of daily temperatures fell like a house of cards in windy weather. What is the reason "madness" of weather and how it affected the lives of our fellow countrymen?



As often happens in Russia, heat came suddenly, in mid-summer. It would seem, when it is expected, if not the most arid - Statistics - month of the torrid time of the year? However, it turned out, not all government rescue and emergency and municipal services were ready for this turn of events. However, everything in order.

The hot weather has almost the entire European part of Russia, Ukraine, in Eastern Europe in the middle of June - although, at the moment, few forecasters anticipated that the anomalous heat, has won the region, would create inconvenience for such a long time period. Held for several weeks, with some periods of slight cooling, the front of the heat began to spread east, gradually increasing its average temperature. Scientists first started talking about the extreme nature of stable weather in mid-July - just when the heat began to reach its maximum temperature values. Anomalous heat-2010: History and Forecast

According to experts, the capital of Russia was broken temperature records kept in the course, neither more nor less than nine decades. The previous maximum temperature was recorded in Moscow in 1920 - however, despite similar rates of thermometers, the revolutionary years were characterized by only bursts of heat waves, but not the pervasive two-month "hell". A similar situation in the capital region was recorded in 1972, when for almost the entire summer average temperature standards were exceeded by 4 degrees - against 7.5 in 2010.

However, not only Russia has suffered from excessive thermal activity - similar problems were observed in neighboring states. For example, Ukraine, unlike in our country, was completely covered by the heat - though this fact shows, rather, only a small geographical scale power. In addition, a similar thermal "extreme" was present in most of Eastern Europe - in varying degrees, depending on location and proximity to large water bodies. Riga Radio and TV Tower from the heat shot up by 4 inches with the result that the structure has reached the height of 368.03 meters and it was the highest in the EU. Heatwave in Belgium was the cause of premature death of 520 people. In Europe, the heat languished France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Did not pass it and the U.S. side. A global map of temperature anomalies in July 2010

The most common version, panaceas are the assumptions about the new trends in global climate formation - the formation of fronts, stable weather and global warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC) stated that abnormal weather conditions - heat, drought, flooding, which prevail in the territory this summer from Europe to Pakistan - return mankind to the prospects of climate change associated with changing currents of El Niño and La Niña. "These phenomena are due to appear again and strengthened climate change associated with pollution atomsfery and greenhouse gas emissions. We can not say with absolute accuracy, that 200 years ago this could not happen, but suspicions on this score there. Despite the fact that it can be only one suspect, "- Agence France-Presse quoted the words Vice-President Jean-Pascal van Ypersele IPCC.

Program Manager, Climate and Energy "WWF Russia Alexei Kokorin believes that such long periods of summer heat we have noted previously, for example, in 1936, but in recent years they have increased considerably. This response of the climate system to change a man of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, a real chemical attack on her. What did people proved 100%.

Pradigmichnoy today recognized version, enjoy a long dry and extremely hot weather with the stabilization of jet streams in the Earth's atmosphere. In other words, retired in the summer in many regions there was a kind of "stagnation" weather affected the nature of weather and climate events within each specific area. For example, long-term, abnormal weather patterns for the region, except Russia, with its abnormal heat, have been recorded in Pakistan and India. In these countries over the past month and a half poured almost incessant rain - monsoon season. According to scientists, have stabilized the jet streams have created a sort of "fenced" in which the weather remained virtually unchanged.

Meteorologists are like locks of jet flows very cautious. To date, this phenomenon is only beginning to be studied the world's leading experts, and yet - and, perhaps, and in general - can not be predicted. According to experts, the occurrence of blocking air flow can be associated with the level of solar activity: an analysis of the history of meteorological observations led to the conclusion that the vast majority of natural disasters occurred in years when solar activity was minimal. If this surmise is right, it will be an important tool for diagnosis and prediction of such natural phenomena.

Deputy Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Dmitry Kiktev believes that the heat in the central part of Russia due to the so-called blocking anticyclone, which is abnormally long does in this area without resorting to the country more cool and moist Atlantic air. "Every year there are different parts of the globe so-called blocking situations in the atmosphere - it is a stationary anticyclone, which will long be installed in any area and do not let this territory cyclone, which could bring the moisture and temperature decrease. This is just our case "- said Kiktev. Speaking about the causes of the situation, he said that distinguish any one factor can not.

The same view was expressed in the report of a special unit of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA). With NOAA Climate Attribution, is engaged in the quick identification of the causes and scientific explanation of climate phenomena observed on the planet.

Abnormal heat in 2010, it seems, is perceived by all categories of people suffered immediate "joy" of hot weather, definitely negative. By and large, the way it is.

If we consider the heat in 2010 solely for the narrow-minded point of view, in terms of an urban dweller, it is possible to allocate a number of negative aspects of such weather. First, in the heat sorokogradusnuyu anyone - except, perhaps, the representatives of ethnic groups, a characteristic feature of which is adapted to living in such conditions - elementary uncomfortable. Increased sweating, fatigue, consuming large amounts of fluid with all its consequences - all the negative aspects of hot weather. In addition, the heat sorokogradusnuyu sharply reduced level of efficiency and business activity - at work, by and large, the body lacks sufficient strength. Known examples of reducing or restructuring the working day in some cities of our country - a desperate attempt by employers to keep labor productivity at the "May" level. In addition, in the heat of steadily deteriorating condition of people suffering from cardio-vascular and autonomic system, senior citizens.

However, these inconveniences some people seem ridiculous and insignificant compared to the global agricultural business and industrial concerns. Heat, drought, absence of rain - all this has led to disastrous losses in crop yields of cereals and other crops. In light of these events in late July 2010 decision of the Government even banned grain exports to foreign countries because of unfounded fears about the size of grains, which are able to collect for the national market and domestic use. Drought-2010 has already become the cause of crop failure in many farms, the cause of numerous fires and the state of emergency in 23 subjects of the Russian Federation. Drought is noted in the republics of Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Mari El, Chuvashia, Udmurtia and Mordovia, in Orenburg, Volgograd, Samara, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan regions. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, drought destroyed crops on an area of about 10 million hectares. The drought has affected most of all dairy cattle, who are facing a shortage of fodder. RGU has lowered the forecast grain harvest in Russia to 65 million tons. The dynamics of droughts since 2000, confirms the fears of scientists that the increased frequency of droughts (primarily soil), is one of the most adverse effects of climate change in Russia in XXI century.

In addition, this scourge Central part of Russia were the forest fires, triggered by the anomalous heat and drought. For several weeks, Moscow has been tightened around Moscow encircling smoke fires - forest and peat. A similar situation exists also in Ryazan and several other areas. Experts estimate that losses from fires and drought were tens of billions of rubles. For the entire fire season 2010 in fires killed more than 50 people, there were more than 40 000 fires in the area of more than 800 hectares, the fire destroyed over 2500 homes were left without shelter about 3 500 people. Losses from the heatwave in Russia estimated at several tens of billions of dollars. During this period, MOE counted in Russia more than 4000 volunteer firemen, the fire-fighting Russia helped 12 countries in.

Scientists, meteorologists at the present stage of development of science is unable to predict the time frame repetition of such anomalous extreme natural phenomena: somebody says that this weather is now become the norm for our latitude, while others expect a repetition not earlier than 5000 years. Who is right? Shows only the time - and, in part, the coming summer.

"What has happened now, it is something unbelievable, unprecedented, unpredictable. To say that something like this happen again next year, somehow did not have to," - said the director of Russia for Hydrometeorology Roman Vilfand. On materials and Lenta.RU RIANOVOSTI


 

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